If at any time there are reasonable grounds to believe that your taxable supplies in the next 30 days alone will be more than £90,000, you must register for VAT straight away. You must tell HMRC before the end of that 30 day period, and you are registered from the day the expectation arose, not from the day the money comes in.

What is the forward look test?

It is the second way of becoming liable to register, set out in the VAT Act 1994, Schedule 1, paragraph 1(1)(b). A UK established person who is not registered becomes liable at any time if there are reasonable grounds for believing that the value of their taxable supplies in the period of 30 days then beginning will exceed the registration threshold. For 2026 to 2027 the threshold is £90,000.

The key word is alone. The supplies expected in the next 30 days must, on their own, be more than the whole annual threshold. Turnover from earlier months is irrelevant to this test. HMRC’s manual at VATREG18200 gives the typical case: a one off contract worth more than the threshold that will be completed or paid for within 30 days.

For the threshold generally, see the VAT registration threshold. This page covers only the forward look.

When does a single large contract trigger it?

The test is triggered on the day you have reasonable grounds to expect that more than £90,000 of taxable supplies will be made within the following 30 days. In practice that is usually the day a contract or order is agreed. Which supplies fall in the window depends on their time of supply, so you need to know when the goods will be delivered or made available, when the services will be performed, or when you will be paid in advance. Our guide to VAT time of supply covers those rules.

Common examples include:

  • a wholesaler agreeing to deliver a single order worth more than £90,000 within a month
  • a consultant agreeing a short project worth more than £90,000 that will be finished and paid for within 30 days
  • a new business that will open with a large launch order already secured

A large contract that will be delivered and paid for over several months may not trigger the forward look at all, because no single 30 day period will carry more than £90,000. It will, however, push up the rolling total, so the backward look described in the rolling 12 month test will catch it at a month end.

When must I register and from what date?

Paragraph 6 of Schedule 1 says you must notify HMRC before the end of the 30 day period by reference to which the liability arises, and that HMRC will register you from the beginning of that period, whether or not you notify. GOV.UK puts it simply: your effective date of registration is the date you realised, not the date your turnover went over the threshold.

Expectation formed Apply by Effective date Source example
20 January 18 February 20 January Notice 700/1, paragraph 4.4
1 May (£100,000 contract paid at end of May) 30 May 1 May GOV.UK, Register for VAT

This is the main practical difference from the rolling test. Under the backward look there is a gap of a month or more between crossing the threshold and the effective date. Under the forward look there is no gap: you are accountable for VAT from the day the expectation arose, so the very contract that triggered registration is normally inside the VAT net.

How do I price and invoice the contract while waiting for a VAT number?

You cannot show VAT on an invoice until HMRC has issued your registration number, but you can increase your price to cover the VAT you will owe. GOV.UK’s worked example is a £100,000 services contract agreed on 1 May. The business tells its customer it will add 20%, raises an invoice for £120,000, and once the VAT number arrives reissues the invoice showing £20,000 of VAT. The customer pays nothing extra and, if VAT registered, can reclaim the £20,000.

Notice 700/1 paragraph 5.1 adds that you can explain to VAT registered customers that VAT invoices will follow, and should send them within 30 days of receiving your number. Agreeing the VAT position in the contract before work starts avoids the common problem of quoting a fixed price and later finding that a sixth of it belongs to HMRC.

Worked example: a new supplier with one big order

Illustration only. A small joinery company has made taxable sales of £30,000 in the last 12 months. On 3 November 2026 it agrees to supply and deliver furniture worth £95,000, excluding VAT, to a hotel group, with delivery on 20 November 2026.

  • On 3 November there are reasonable grounds to believe that taxable supplies in the 30 days beginning that day will exceed £90,000.
  • The company becomes liable to register on 3 November 2026 and its effective date is 3 November 2026.
  • It must notify HMRC before the end of the 30 day period that began on 3 November, which is 2 December 2026.
  • VAT at 20% is due on the £95,000 order, so it should agree with the hotel group that the price is £95,000 plus VAT before delivery.

Had the order been for £60,000, the forward look would not apply. The rolling total would reach £90,000 only if other sales took it over, and the company would then be caught at the relevant month end instead.

What is not a forward look case?

HMRC is clear at VATREG18200 that the forward look should not be confused with a business that has traded for 11 months and realises that next month’s sales will take its 12 month total over the threshold. That business becomes liable only under the backward look, at the end of the twelfth month. Expecting to cross the annual figure soon is not the same as expecting more than £90,000 of supplies in 30 days.

The forward look also cannot be escaped through the exception route. HMRC states at VATREG19050 that a person whose supplies are expected to exceed the threshold in the next 30 days cannot be granted exception, because exception under paragraph 1(3) is available only to liability arising from past turnover. The temporary turnover route is explained in exception from VAT registration.

What if both tests are met at once?

A business can sometimes trigger the forward look and the backward look at the same moment. Paragraph 8 of Schedule 1 deals with this: HMRC registers the business from the forward look date under paragraph 6(2) rather than the later backward look date under paragraph 5(2). A similar 30 day forward look applies when someone takes over a business as a going concern; see transfer of a going concern.

What evidence would HMRC use if it thinks I missed it?

If HMRC believes a business should have registered under the forward look, it has to show that at some date in the past there were reasonable grounds to expect taxable supplies in the next 30 days alone to exceed the threshold. VATREG26250 tells officers that showing actual turnover later was below the limit does not help either way; the question is what was reasonably expected at the time. The evidence it looks for is short term contracts, correspondence, orders for goods and similar documents that existed at the alleged date. Keeping a dated file for any unusually large contract is therefore sensible.

Where HMRC establishes an earlier date, it registers you from that date and you owe VAT on supplies made since then, with a possible failure to notify penalty. See what happens if you register for VAT late.

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Sources

Reviewed by Christine Anderson, Broker, Solar Protect. Last reviewed 19 October 2026. Part of Accountapedia, the Solar Protect guide to UK tax and accounting. This page is general information, not personalised advice.